Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market12 Oct 2026

Will Kimberly Guilfoyle be out as US envoy to Greece by 16 Oct?

BinaryResolves 16 Oct 2026
History14%
Hunch32%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

On 13 October 2026 White House press secretary Katie Zacharia said the White House had asked Kimberly Guilfoyle to resign, and she then announced her resignation as ambassador to Greece; the US embassy page returned 403 and could not be read, so NBC News and Al Jazeera settle it.

Resolved 13 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 1 of 7: Tom Price left 10 days after the first reports; Shulkin, Pruitt and Zinke left after 42, 98 and 442 days; Carson, Mnuchin and Johnson stayed.

Hunch. A senior US official said on 11 Oct that Donald Trump and Marco Rubio are angry and will likely decide this week what to do about Kimberly Guilfoyle.

How this resolves

The Guilfoyle market resolves on statements from Donald Trump, Marco Rubio or the State Department, on whitehouse.gov and on the US embassy in Greece website: YES if by 11:59pm Washington time on 16 October her firing, her resignation or a date for her to leave is announced, and NO if not. The Guardian and BBC News reports settle it if the official pages are silent.

The pattern behind it

1 of 7
One of seven Trump appointees hit by a run of such reports left within three weeks, while the other six stayed in office longer.

We looked for cases where a US president had to decide on an official he had appointed, after a run of press reports about the official's spending or behaviour. We found seven such officials from 2017 to 2020, all appointed by Donald Trump in his first term.