The Budget 2026 document and the Chancellor's speech of 28 October 2026 name 2030 as the target date for 3% of GDP on defence, and BBC News and The Guardian report the 3% in 2030 target.
Hunch. The Treasury said on 28 August that the Budget will not name a date for 3%, and Healey called money discipline his first priority.
The year market resolves on the Budget speech and the Budget document on GOV.UK on 28 October 2026: YES if neither names a year by which the government commits to reach 3% of GDP on defence, and NO if a year is named, 2030 or any other. Repeating the current forecast of 3% in 2034/35 without calling it a goal counts as no year, and BBC News and The Guardian settle it if GOV.UK cannot be read.
We looked for cases where a UK finance minister gave a planned Budget or spending statement while a defence spending goal in % of GDP had no year, and room under the borrowing rules was shrinking or not clear. We found seven such Budgets and statements since 2015. Three different chancellors gave them, and six of them gave no year.