The Budget of 28 October 2026 names a target date of 2030 for defence spending of 3% of GDP, the Budget 2026 document and the Chancellor's speech on GOV.UK show, which under the market rule counts as YES; BBC News and The Guardian report it.
Hunch. The Treasury said on 28 August that the Budget will fully fund the current plan, which reaches 2.7% by 2030.
The 2.7% market resolves on the same Budget document and speech: YES if planned defence spending for 2030 is set above 2.7% of GDP, and NO if it stays at 2.7% or lower or does not change. Extra money without a new share of GDP for 2030 counts as NO, and if the Budget names 3% by 2030 it counts as YES. BBC News and The Guardian are the backups.
We looked for cases where a UK finance minister gave a planned Budget or spending statement while a defence spending goal in % of GDP had no year, and room under the borrowing rules was shrinking or not clear. We found seven such Budgets and statements since 2015. Three different chancellors gave them, and six of them gave no year.