Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market25 Jun 2026

Will London record 35C or higher before 10 August 2026?

BinaryResolves 10 Aug 2026
History30%
Hunch61%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

London recorded 36.4C on 26 June and 35C again on 9 July, both before the 10 August deadline, per Met Office readings reported by the Evening Standard and Time Out.

Resolved 26 Jun 2026
How this resolves

The 35C market resolves on official Met Office daily maximums from London stations (Heathrow, St James's Park, Kew Gardens, Northolt); the highest verified reading at any of these counts, provisional figures announced on the day stand unless corrected within 72 hours, and media-reported unofficial readings do not count.

The pattern behind it

3 of 10
London passed 35C in three of the ten summers before this one — 2019, 2020 and 2022. A near-40C June shifts the picture, but the honest base rate is that most London summers never touch 35C, and June heat has been a weak predictor of the July peak.

London passed 35C in three of the ten summers before this one. We looked at when its biggest heat spikes came. They are short and sharp, and they usually land in late July or August. A hot June has not meant the peak of the summer was over.