History. 0 of 4: no company paused or dropped its project within 80 days; Hitachi suspended Wylfa after 237 days, and Nissan, Stellantis and Tata went ahead.
Hunch. Heathrow's boss said on 12 October that the owners will "take stock" by the end of the year, so a pause before 31 December is now possible.
The pause market resolves on Heathrow's media centre: YES if by 31 December 2026 Heathrow Airport or its owners announce a pause, a delay of the planning application or an exit from the third runway, confirmed by BBC News or The Guardian. Words such as "assess" or "take stock" without a decision resolve NO, and BBC and Guardian reports are the backup if the media centre is silent.
We looked for cases where a company linked a new project to support from the government and named when it would decide. We found four such times, all in Britain, from 2016 to 2023. Each time the company asked for money or guarantees. Heathrow's owners ask the prime minister only to say that he supports the plan.