Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market29 Sep 2026

Will Hockney's Dog Painting 17 sell for more than £5m?

BinaryResolves 14 Oct 2026
History20%
Hunch17%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Christie's lot page and results story show Dog Painting 17 sold for £3,506,000 with buyer's premium on 14 October 2026, which is not more than £5m.

Resolved 14 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 2 of 10. Kirkeby sold for 3.7 times the top estimate and Hodgkin for 2.8 times. Artschwager reached 1.9 times and Polke 1.7 times.

Hunch. A Frank Auerbach painting sold below its estimate in the same London week in 2025, a sign that buyers at the top of the market are careful.

How this resolves

The £5m market resolves on the same Christie's result on 14 October 2026: YES if the price with the buyer's fee is more than £5,000,000. The Guardian and BBC News reports are the backup.

The pattern behind it

5 of 10
In 5 of 10 sales the price beat the top estimate: Kirkeby, Hodgkin, Piene, Artschwager and Polke. The other five sold within the estimate, and none below it.

We looked for cases where a work by an artist who had died earlier that year came up for sale for the first time at a London auction in the week of the Frieze art fair. We found fourteen since 2006 and took the ten with the highest estimates. All but one were at Christie's. We compared each price, with fees, against the top of the estimate.