Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market10 Sep 2026

Does Labour hold Holborn and St Pancras on 8 October?

BinaryResolves 9 Oct 2026
History25%
Hunch65%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Camden Council announced early on 9 October 2026 that Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali was elected MP for Holborn and St Pancras, and BBC News and the Guardian reported the Labour win.

Resolved 9 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The hold market resolves on the declaration made by the returning officer for Camden in the early hours of 9 October and on the certified result published by the Electoral Commission. A Labour win by any margin resolves YES, a win by any other candidate resolves NO, and a recount changes nothing until the declaration is made. The BBC and the Guardian results pages stand in if the certified figures are slow.

The pattern behind it

2 of 8
Two of the last eight seats defended by a governing party at this stage of a parliament were held: Old Bexley and Sidcup in 2021 and Makerfield in 2026. The six defeats were Chesham and Amersham, North Shropshire, Tiverton and Honiton, Wakefield, Runcorn and Helsby and Gorton and Denton. Across the full record since 2010 the governing party held five of thirteen, the other holds being Eastleigh in 2013, Witney in 2016 and Sleaford and North Hykeham in 2016. Even the holds were expensive: Old Bexley's majority fell by three quarters and Witney's by more than three quarters.

We looked at byelections since 2010 in seats the governing party had won at the last general election, in the first three years of a parliament. This one comes 26 months into the parliament elected in 2024. We show the last eight. The governing party kept two of them.