Green candidate Zack Polanski took just under 33% of the vote in Holborn and St Pancras on 8 October 2026, above 30%, according to the Guardian, with 8,928 votes reported by BBC News; Camden's full results page could not be read because it blocks automated visits.
The Green share market resolves on the vote share of the official Green party candidate in the declared result, whether that is Zack Polanski or Hamza Chowdhury, as certified by the Electoral Commission. More than 30.0% resolves YES and exactly 30.0% resolves NO; votes for any other party or independent do not count towards it. The BBC and the Guardian results pages are the fallback.
We looked at byelections since 2010 in seats the governing party had won at the last general election, in the first three years of a parliament. This one comes 26 months into the parliament elected in 2024. We show the last eight. The governing party kept two of them.