History. 4 of 5 races where a party leader in the US House stepped away: the members chose the next most senior leader over a rival from one wing. Across all 42 such races, without checking who the rivals were, 18 of 42, and 17 of 26 since 1940.
Hunch. In 2023 the same two men faced a secret vote of House Republicans and Steve Scalise won only 113 to 99, and most Republicans who lost their seats came from the moderate wing that backs him.
The leader market resolves on the House Republican Conference announcement after its leadership election on 10 November 2026: YES if Steve Scalise is elected leader of House Republicans, the minority leader of the new Congress, and NO if anyone else is. A later change in the post does not count, and if the vote is moved, the day of the announcement decides. NBC News and CBS News confirm the result, and settle it if the party's own page is silent.
We looked for cases where a party leader in the US House stepped away and the party's members chose a new one, with the next most senior leader facing a rival linked to one wing of the party. We found five such races since 1971, four of them among Republicans. The next most senior leader won four of them.