History. Where a count is open, the loser got a third or more in 2 of 4 races, both with three or more candidates; in two-man races 0 of 2.
Hunch. When the same two men met in a secret vote of House Republicans in 2023, the loser still won 99 votes to the winner's 113.
Resolves YES if in the deciding round of the leader vote on 10 November the losing candidate gets at least a third of the votes cast for the two main candidates, and NO if less. If by the end of 11 November, Washington time, neither the Republicans nor NBC News, CBS News or The Washington Post report the count, the market is void.
We looked for cases where a party leader in the US House stepped away and the party's members chose a new one, with the next most senior leader facing a rival linked to one wing of the party. We found five such races since 1971, four of them among Republicans. The next most senior leader won four of them.