History. No past figure: challenges to a sitting leader and whip races are not among the past races.
Hunch. The Washington Post reported on 7 November that Andy Harris, head of the hard-right Freedom Caucus, expects Tom Emmer to stay on as whip.
The whip market resolves YES if House Republicans elect Tom Emmer as their whip, the number two post in the minority, at the leadership elections of 10 November 2026. NO if they elect August Pfluger or anyone else, or if Emmer withdraws, with NBC News, CBS News and The Washington Post as the backup.
We looked for cases where a party leader in the US House stepped away and the party's members chose a new one, with the next most senior leader facing a rival linked to one wing of the party. We found five such races since 1971, four of them among Republicans. The next most senior leader won four of them.