Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market08 Nov 2026

Will the £100 energy payment be raised above £100 by 31 Jan?

BinaryResolves 31 Jan 2027
History33%
Hunch26%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 31 Jan 2027
Why these numbers

History. 3 of 9: within 95 days the amount went up three times (the UK on day 57, Ireland by day 83, the Netherlands on day 91). Britain doubled its discount later, on day 112.

Hunch. On 3 November John Healey told MPs the payment will be £100 for 20 million households, and none of its critics is asking for a bigger amount.

How this resolves

The amount market resolves on GOV.UK: YES if by 31 January 2027 the government says each home in England will get more than £100 from the Household Energy Payment. Money for other groups and the £150 Warm Home Discount do not count, and BBC and The Guardian are the backups.

The pattern behind it

4 of 9
In four of nine past one-off energy payments, the government changed who could get the money before paying, each time by adding people. Five times it did not.

We looked for cases where a government gave one-off help with energy costs through a ready list, such as council tax bands, power accounts or wages, and then decided whether to change who got it before paying. We found nine such payments in 2021 and 2022. Four times the government added people before the first payment. It never took better-off homes out. Only two of the four changes came within 95 days of the announcement: France on day 35 and the UK on day 57. (BBC; GOV.UK; DW; GOV.UK)