Hunch. Russia let a Kyodo News reporter leave within 72 hours in 2019, the only quick exit for a Japanese reporter.
The custody market resolves on Japan's foreign ministry statements at mofa.go.jp: YES if on 12 December 2026 Yuki Imai is still in custody in Russia, including after a longer term, a trial or a sentence, and NO if before the end of that day he has been freed, sent home or swapped and has left Russia. BBC News and The Guardian settle it if the ministry is silent.
We looked for cases where a court in Russia ordered a foreigner kept in custody on spying charges, from 1992 to today. We checked whether each person was still in custody when the court's first term ran out. We found seven such people, from 2014 to 2024. All seven were still in custody on that day.