The IMF October 2026 Fiscal Monitor says world public debt is projected to pass 100% of GDP before 2030 and its briefing put it at the end of the decade, so no year from 2026 to 2028 is shown at 100% or more.
History. 4 of 6: 2021, 2022 and 2023 kept debt close to 100% without passing it, 2024 moved the point later; 2020 and 2025 brought it closer.
Hunch. On 7 October Kristalina Georgieva said world debt is on track to soon pass 100% of output, while April pointed to 2029.
The world debt market resolves on the IMF's October 2026 Fiscal Monitor page and its world debt table on 14 October: YES if world government debt stays below 100% of GDP in every year up to 2028, and NO if the table or the report text shows 100% or more in any year from 2026 to 2028. If the report of 14 October has no new world debt figure the market is void, and The Guardian and BBC reports of the day settle it if the IMF page does not open.
We looked for cases where the IMF updated its April forecast of world government debt in October, while world debt was already 90% of output or more. We found six such years, from 2020 to 2025. Each October report is compared with the April one of the same year.