The IMF World Economic Outlook published on 13 October 2026 puts 2026 world growth at 3.1%, up from 3.0% in July, as shown in the IMF DataMapper and reported by The Guardian; the report page itself still showed a holding page.
History. 4 of 6: April and July 2022, April and July 2026; October 2022 kept the year unchanged and January 2023 raised it.
Hunch. On 7 October Kristalina Georgieva said world growth has been steady since the spring, and in September the fund pointed to around 3%.
The 2026 forecast market resolves on the IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook page on 13 October: YES if the table of world growth shows 2.9% or less for 2026 and NO if it shows 3.0% or more. If the report is not out by 20 October the market is void, and The Guardian and Reuters reports settle it if the IMF page does not open.
We looked for cases where the IMF published a regular world growth forecast while it said a war was pushing up energy or commodity prices. We found six such reports, four from 2022 and 2023 and two from 2026. Each one is compared with the forecast just before it.