The IMF World Economic Outlook published on 13 October 2026 keeps 2027 world growth at 3.4%, as shown in the IMF DataMapper and reported by The Guardian; the report page itself still showed a holding page.
History. 3 of 5: April, July and October 2022 lowered the next year; April 2026 kept it and July 2026 raised it. January 2023 has no earlier next-year figure on an open page.
Hunch. On 7 October the IMF said the US, European and Japanese central banks have raised rates and long-term borrowing costs are still climbing.
The 2027 forecast market resolves on the same IMF report: YES if world growth for 2027 is 3.3% or less and NO if it is 3.4% or more. If the report is not out by 20 October the market is void, with The Guardian and Reuters as backup.
We looked for cases where the IMF published a regular world growth forecast while it said a war was pushing up energy or commodity prices. We found six such reports, four from 2022 and 2023 and two from 2026. Each one is compared with the forecast just before it.