The IMF World Economic Outlook published on 13 October 2026 raises UK growth for 2026 to 1.3% from 1.0% in July, as shown in the IMF DataMapper and reported by The Guardian and BBC News.
History. 5 of 7: 2013, 2014, 2023, 2024 and 2025 kept or raised the summer figure; 2019 and 2021 cut it by 0.1 and 0.2 point.
Hunch. On 7 October the IMF said the war hurts most in countries that import energy and have little room in their budgets.
The 2026 UK forecast market resolves on the IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook page on 13 October: YES if the table shows 1.0% or more for the United Kingdom in 2026 and NO if it shows 0.9% or less. If the report is not out by 20 October the market is void, and The Guardian and BBC reports of the day settle it if the IMF page does not open.
We looked for cases where the IMF raised its UK growth forecast for the year in a summer update and then gave a new one in its October report. We found seven such years since 2013. Each October figure is compared with the summer one.