The IMF World Economic Outlook published on 13 October 2026 cuts UK growth for 2027 to 1.2% from 1.3%, as shown in the IMF DataMapper and reported by The Guardian and BBC News.
History. 2 of 6: 2023 and 2025 lowered next year against the summer; 2014, 2019 and 2024 kept it, 2013 raised it. 2021 has no next-year figure on the open page.
Hunch. UK borrowing costs reached their highest since 2007 on 8 October, after the IMF set its July figure for 2027.
The 2027 UK forecast market resolves on the same IMF report: YES if the United Kingdom figure for 2027 is 1.2% or less and NO if it is 1.3% or more. If the report is not out by 20 October the market is void, with The Guardian and BBC as backup.
We looked for cases where the IMF raised its UK growth forecast for the year in a summer update and then gave a new one in its October report. We found seven such years since 2013. Each October figure is compared with the summer one.