The IMF ministers' Chair's Statement of 17 October 2026 does not ask the fund to focus on its core mandate; it only says the fund's work on advanced intelligence should stay 'within the Fund's mandate'; the IMF page is closed to scripts and the browser, so the full text was read in a reprint, and The Guardian and Reuters (via CNBC) quote the same statement.
Hunch. The committee's last three statements, from April 2025 to April 2026, did not use the words core mandate about the fund.
The core mandate market resolves on the same IMF document of 17 October, whatever its title: YES if it asks the IMF to focus on its core mandate or core mandates in those words, and NO if those words about the fund are missing. If no document is out by 18 October the market is void, with Reuters and The Guardian as backup.
We looked for cases where the committee's own text named a war as a shock to the world economy together with energy prices or energy supply. We found five such meetings, from 2022 to 2026. Each one is judged by the title of the document published that day.