Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market10 Oct 2026

Will the asylum bill committee pass the late-claim rules by 3 Nov?

BinaryResolves 3 Nov 2026
History100%
Hunch93%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

The bill committee agreed the government's late-claims changes: amendments to clauses 11 and 12 on 13 October and new clauses 3 and 4 on late claims and credibility on 27 October 2026, as Hansard and the amendments page of the bill show.

Resolved 27 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 8 of 8: the committee passed the government change before its last meeting every time.

Hunch. Fourteen Labour MPs voted against this bill in July, so the government side is less united than in past committees.

How this resolves

The committee market resolves on the amendments page of the bill on bills.parliament.uk and the committee reports in Hansard: YES if the government changes on late asylum claims are agreed by the last sitting, with or without changes, and NO if they are rejected, withdrawn or not reached. If the committee is extended, the date moves to its new last sitting.

The pattern behind it

8 of 8
Eight of eight times since 2015, a committee of MPs passed the Home Office's own changes to its bill before the last meeting. No MP from the governing party voted against.

We looked for cases where a UK government with a majority changed one of its own Home Office bills in committee, after MPs had approved the bill's main idea. We found eight such bills from 2015 to 2025, six under the Conservatives and two under Labour.