Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market10 Oct 2026

Will a Labour MP vote against the government in the bill committee?

BinaryResolves 3 Nov 2026
History0%
Hunch7%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Hansard division lists for the Immigration and Asylum Bill committee show no Labour member voting against the minister in any vote from 13 October to 3 November 2026, including all 34 votes at the last two sittings on 3 November.

Resolved 3 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. 0 of 8: no MP of the governing party voted against the government in any committee vote.

Hunch. Fourteen Labour MPs voted against this bill at its first big vote in July.

How this resolves

The Labour vote market resolves on the committee votes in Hansard, which list every member by name: YES if any Labour member votes against the minister in any vote from 13 October to 3 November, and NO if none does. BBC News and The Guardian are the backup.

The pattern behind it

8 of 8
Eight of eight times since 2015, a committee of MPs passed the Home Office's own changes to its bill before the last meeting. No MP from the governing party voted against.

We looked for cases where a UK government with a majority changed one of its own Home Office bills in committee, after MPs had approved the bill's main idea. We found eight such bills from 2015 to 2025, six under the Conservatives and two under Labour.