Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market10 Oct 2026

Will President Prabowo's side appear at the 21 Oct haze hearing?

BinaryResolves 21 Oct 2026
Hunch58%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

The Pontianak District Court record for case 292/Pdt.G/2026/PN Ptk shows the 21 October 2026 hearing took place with no party listed as absent (on 7 October it had named the President, Tergugat I, among the absent defendants) and was put off to 4 November for the defendants' reply on standing; no whitelist outlet reported the hearing, so the court record settles it.

Resolved 21 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. No count: earlier suits do not record whether officials came to early hearings.

Hunch. The plaintiffs’ lawyer said smoke may have kept officials from flying in, and the government fought every past ruling it lost.

How this resolves

The hearing market resolves on the Pontianak District Court case tracking page for case 292/Pdt.G/2026/PN Ptk: YES if the record of the 21 October 2026 hearing shows the President, the first defendant, present or represented by a lawyer, and NO if he is listed as absent. If the hearing does not take place on 21 October the market is void, and The Guardian and The Independent are the backup.

The pattern behind it

3 of 7
Three of seven times a ruling for the citizens stood after all appeals. Three times a higher court overturned a first win, twice by review after the final appeal, and once the citizens lost from the start.

We looked for cases where Indonesian citizens or groups sued the national government in a civil court, saying it had failed in its duty to people, and a first court had ruled. We found seven such suits since 2006. One was over the forest fires of 2015, and each time the Supreme Court had the last word.