Hunch. On 14 October Inter Miami sat second in the East after two straight wins under Cristian Gonzalez, and a best-of-three series in their own league is a softer test than a European two-leg round.
The first-round market resolves on the playoff bracket and results on the MLS website: YES if Inter Miami do not reach the Conference Semifinals, because they lose the wild card game on 18 November or lose their best-of-three Round One series by 2 December 2026, and NO if they win their first round and play in the Conference Semifinals on 5 or 6 December. The market is void if the club's first round is not finished by the end of 2 December, and BBC Sport, The Guardian and Al Jazeera settle it if the league site is silent.
We looked for cases where the reigning champions of a league changed their head coach during the season, after poor results and while behind the leaders, and then played a knockout round that season. We found seven such clubs from 2009 to 2024, all in Europe. Five went out in their first knockout round, and two went through. Every one of those rounds was played over two matches, home and away, in a European competition, while Inter Miami face a best-of-three series in their own league.