Hunch. The museum says itself that private gifts alone cannot raise £3.1m before 1 December, after both big heritage funds turned it down in August.
The UK buyer market resolves YES if Highland Council, Arts Council England, the culture department or BBC Scotland report, in a text published by 8 December 2026, that by the end of 1 December, UK time, the museum with the option had raised the money or bought the bust. It resolves NO if an export licence is given, the sale abroad goes ahead, the sale is stopped or delayed without a purchase, or no such report appears by 8 December, with the Highland Council news page as the main source and BBC Scotland and The Guardian deciding together if the council site does not open.
We looked for cases where a UK museum or gallery, other than the national and university museums, said it would raise the money to buy an artwork worth £1m or more that the UK had stopped from leaving, and so got extra months to do it. We found 14 such times since 2006 and kept the ten most recent, from 2012 to 2024, and checked whether the buyer paid before time ran out.