The Associated Press called the Iowa Senate race of 3 November 2026 for Democrat Josh Turek, who led Ashley Hinson 50.5% to 46.4% with about 98% of votes counted; the Iowa state results site returned an error, and The Guardian and BBC News report Turek's win.
History. 4 of 8, an even split; History at 50 keeps this market out of the public accuracy count.
Hunch. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Iowa since 2008, The Guardian reported when Joni Ernst's departure became known.
The winner market resolves on the official Iowa Secretary of State result and the Associated Press count, checked on 4 November 2026: YES if Ashley Hinson wins the US Senate seat, NO if another candidate wins. If counting goes on, it waits for the official result; BBC News and The Guardian are the backup.
We looked for cases where a senator from the president's party stepped down, the party had won the two elections before for that seat, and a member of the House from the same party ran for it in a midterm. We found more than ten since 1930 and took the eight most recent, from 1998 to 2022.