Republican Ashley Hinson lost the Iowa Senate race of 3 November 2026 to Democrat Josh Turek (50.5% to 46.4%, AP, about 98% counted), and a Republican loss counts as YES; the Iowa state results site returned an error, and The Guardian and BBC News report the result.
History. 6 of 8: the lead fell in all four lost seats and in Michigan 2014 and Tennessee 2018; it rose in South Carolina 2002 and Vermont 2022.
Hunch. Only 17% of American adults approve of how Trump handles the cost of living, an AP/NORC poll reported by the BBC on 7 October found.
The lead market resolves on the official Iowa result: YES if the Republican candidate wins by less than Joni Ernst's 6.6-point lead in 2020, measured in points of all votes for candidates, or loses the seat. NO if the Republican lead is 6.6 points or more; BBC News and The Guardian are the backup.
We looked for cases where a senator from the president's party stepped down, the party had won the two elections before for that seat, and a member of the House from the same party ran for it in a midterm. We found more than ten since 1930 and took the eight most recent, from 1998 to 2022.