Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market21 Sep 2026

Is a foreign firm sanctioned for serving Iran's airlines by 23 Oct?

BinaryResolves 23 Oct 2026
Hunch55%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Between 21 September and 23 October 2026 OFAC listed no company outside Iran for services to Mahan Air, Iran Air or the 27 listed airlines: its designations up to 21 October name none, and its recent actions page has no action on 22 or 23 October.

Resolved 23 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. OFAC listed foreign firms helping Mahan Air in April, on 30 July and on 8 September, so a new round inside a month fits its pace, but listing an airport or a big fuel supplier would be a new step.

How this resolves

The designation market resolves on OFAC recent actions and the linked Treasury press release: YES if between 21 September and 23 October 2026 OFAC lists a company outside Iran for services to Mahan Air, Iran Air or any of the 27 airlines listed on 8 September. A warning without a listing resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

7 of 8
In seven of eight comparable cases since 2018, a US aviation or shipping restriction came into force on the day Washington named. The one miss was the June 2020 ban on Chinese airlines, dropped after Beijing gave way.

Since 2018 we found eight US deadlines like this one. In each, the US government named a future date for a ban or limit on a country's planes or ships, in a published legal text. In seven, the ban started on the day named, with no delay, extension or withdrawal. Many cases come from Donald Trump's two terms. The one miss and the one later pause both came out of talks with China.