Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market10 Oct 2026

Will the Chief Minister be chosen in the first vote on 13 October?

BinaryResolves 13 Oct 2026
History3 of 4
Hunch82%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

In the first vote in the House of Keys on 13 October 2026 Chris Thomas won 16 votes, above the 13 needed, with 6 for Kirrie Jenkins, as Tynwald and BBC News report.

Resolved 13 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 3 of 4; the 2006 rounds come only from IOM Today, without it 3 of 3.

Hunch. Only two candidates stand this time, as in 2021, when the first vote settled it.

How this resolves

Resolves YES if in the first vote on 13 October 2026 one candidate gets at least 13 votes, as shown on Tynwald’s news page or the Votes and Proceedings, and NO if no one reaches 13 and a second round or new nominations follow. BBC and The Guardian are the backup.

The pattern behind it

4 of 4
In four of four votes, members chose the candidate who had been a minister or Speaker, or had served longer. No first-term member stood in any of them.

We looked for cases where the Isle of Man’s parliament chose a Chief Minister after a general election. We found four votes on open pages, from 2006 to 2021. Until 2021 both chambers of Tynwald voted, and since then only the elected members.