By the end of 4 November 2026 the Foreign Office had not expelled any Israeli diplomat or closed an Israeli mission; on 8 October it said the UK would not take reciprocal action while talks continue.
History. 1 of 6: Finland closed Russia's Turku consulate 13 days after Russia's order in 2023.
Hunch. A UK message threatening to expel up to 27 Israeli diplomats was reported on 5 October, and the Foreign Office did not deny it.
The expulsion market resolves on Foreign Office statements on gov.uk, checked at 10:00 on 5 November 2026: YES if by the end of 4 November the UK officially expels at least one Israeli diplomat or closes an Israeli mission in reply to the consulate closure, and NO if not. If the consulate is not closed by the end of 8 October the market is void, and The Guardian and BBC News settle it if gov.uk is silent.
We looked for cases where a country ordered another country's consulate on its soil to close, as a reply to a step taken against it, and named the closing date. We found six since 2017, and checked what the other country did next. Russia ordered four of the six closures, three of them against Poland.