Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market06 Oct 2026

Will Britain's East Jerusalem consulate be closed on 4 November?

BinaryResolves 4 Nov 2026
History100%
Hunch88%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Israel removed the consulate status of the British Consulate General in Jerusalem on 8 October 2026 and its diplomats left; on 4 November the office worked only as the UK Mission, Jerusalem, so the consulate itself stayed closed by Israel's decision.

Resolved 4 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. 6 of 6 closures went ahead and none was reversed.

Hunch. Israel named the day on 5 October, but none of the past closures was between close allies, and Britain has threatened a heavy reply.

How this resolves

The consulate market resolves on Foreign Office or Israeli foreign ministry statements, with The Guardian and BBC News as backup: YES if on 4 November the consulate is closed by Israel's decision. NO if it is working on that day because the closure was cancelled, delayed or did not happen.

The pattern behind it

1 of 6
One of six times the country whose consulate was closed answered within 30 days with its own closure or expulsions. Twice the next step came months later, for a different reason.

We looked for cases where a country ordered another country's consulate on its soil to close, as a reply to a step taken against it, and named the closing date. We found six since 2017, and checked what the other country did next. Russia ordered four of the six closures, three of them against Poland.