History. 6 of 7. In every round since 2003 the prime minister stayed in office until a new government was sworn in. The quickest handover was in 2022, on day 58, so on this date that round counts as no.
Hunch. The Guardian reported on 18 October that most polls give neither camp the 61 seats needed for a quick new government.
The prime minister market resolves on the Knesset's records of government posts: YES if at the end of 24 December 2026, Israel time, Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister, heading a new government or as caretaker. NO if by then a government led by someone else has been approved and sworn in, and Al Jazeera and BBC reports settle it if the Knesset site is silent.
We looked for cases where a sitting Israeli prime minister led his party into a Knesset election since 2003, when Israel stopped choosing its prime minister in a separate vote. We found nine such elections. The three votes of 2019 and 2020 were one long crisis with no new government in between, so they count as one. Each time we asked if the prime minister was still in office 58 days after the vote.