The final results released early on 30 October 2026 give Likud 27 seats, ahead of Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar on 21, so Likud is the largest single list; the Central Elections Committee results site could not be opened, so The Guardian and Al Jazeera (blocs and Likud as largest party) settle it, with Anadolu giving the seats for each party.
Hunch. Al Jazeera wrote on 20 October that Eisenkot's Yashar party is evenly matched with Likud in the polls.
The first-place market resolves on the final official results of the Central Elections Committee: YES if Likud has more seats than any other single list, NO if another list has more, and a tie for first place is VOID. If the results come after 30 October, it resolves on the day they are published, with Al Jazeera and BBC as the backup.
We looked for cases where a sitting Israeli prime minister led his party into a Knesset election since 2003, when Israel stopped choosing its prime minister in a separate vote. We found nine such elections. The three votes of 2019 and 2020 were one long crisis with no new government in between, so they count as one. Each time we asked if the prime minister was still in office 58 days after the vote.