Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market22 Oct 2026

Will Italy's protest decree become law with 4 days to spare?

BinaryResolves 26 Dec 2026
History22%
Hunch18%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 26 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. Of nine past decrees on violence at public events, parliament made two into law by day 56, in 2007 and 2019. The other seven came out on day 59 or 60.

Hunch. The 60 days will run into December, and in 2022 a decree with a new gathering crime that did so became law only on day 60, 30 December.

How this resolves

The early law market resolves on the Gazzetta Ufficiale, Italy's official journal: day 0 is the date of the issue that publishes the decree, and it resolves YES if the law that converts the decree appears in an issue dated no later than day 56, four days before the 60 days run out. A later law, a decree that lapses, or a decree repealed with its content moved into another law resolves NO, the market is void if the decree is not published by the end of 31 October 2026, and the law's pages on the Senate and Chamber websites and Reuters are the backups.

The pattern behind it

2 of 9
Nine times since 2001, Italy's parliament made a decree on violence at public events into law within 60 days. Twice the law came out by day 56, and seven times on day 59 or 60.

We looked for cases where an Italian government used an emergency decree to create a crime, or raise punishment, for behaviour at protests, sports events or other public gatherings. We found nine such decrees since 2001. Parliament made every one of them law within its 60 days, and changed eight of the nine on the way.