Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market22 Oct 2026

Will Jio shares end their first day above the sale price?

BinaryResolves 28 Oct 2026
History43%
Hunch49%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

On its first trading day, 28 October 2026, Jio (JPL) closed at 1,417.50 rupees in the National Stock Exchange of India's daily bhavcopy, above the 1,119-rupee offer price reported by The Independent.

Resolved 28 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. Three of seven record first share sales in India since 2004 closed their first day above the sale price, and four closed below.

Hunch. By the evening of 21 October, funds and banks had bid for 9.4 times their part of Jio's sale.

How this resolves

Resolves YES if the closing price the National Stock Exchange of India publishes for Jio on its first day of trading, due on 28 October, is above the final sale price for all buyers, and NO if it is equal or below. If trading has not started by 31 October the market is void, and BBC News and The Guardian settle it if the exchange page cannot be read.

The pattern behind it

3 of 7
In three of seven record first share sales in India since 2004, the shares closed their first day above the sale price. The last three, in 2021, 2022 and 2024, all closed below it.

We looked for cases where a company sold shares to the public in India for the first time in what was then the country’s biggest such sale. We found seven since 2004. We compared each first-day closing price with the sale price, and with the first price of the day.