Hunch. GOV.UK says nominations can take 12 to 18 months, and the list comes about 65 days after Kane's Ballon d'Or on 26 October, sooner than for any earlier British winner who got a higher grade.
The OBE or CBE market resolves on the same GOV.UK list: YES if Harry Kane is listed with an OBE or a CBE, NO if he is not in the list or is listed as a knight. If the list is not out by 31 December 2026, it resolves on the day it is published, with The Guardian and BBC News as backups.
We looked for cases where a British sports star who was still competing won the top prize of their sport for the first time, and already had a lower honour such as an MBE. We then checked the next main honours list. We found five such wins from 2012 to 2024. Two of them, David Weir and Jessica Ennis, came in the same list of December 2012.