Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market28 Mar 2026

Will Kerr break the mile world record (sub-3:43.13) in London on 18 July?

BinaryResolves 18 Jul 2026
History0 of 2
Hunch16%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Kerr ran 3:42.66 in London, the first man under 3:43, breaking El Guerrouj's 27-year-old record of 3:43.13.

Resolved 18 Jul 2026
How this resolves

The record market resolves YES only if World Athletics ratifies (or provisionally confirms on the night, pending standard checks) a time below 3:43.13 by Kerr in the London Athletics Meet mile on 18 July 2026; official timing per World Athletics and Diamond League results. If the mile is removed from the programme or Kerr withdraws before the gun, both live markets void.

The pattern behind it

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None of the 2 serious attempts on the men's mile world record since Rome 1999 broke it: Ingebrigtsen ran 3:43.73 in 2023 and Kerr 3:45.34 in 2024. The record has stood for 27 years, but that is 27 years and not 27 attempts. Kerr needs to find 2.21 seconds on his lifetime best.

No one has beaten the mile record since Rome in 1999. The men's mile world record fell again and again in the years of Sebastian Coe, Steve Ovett and Steve Cram, then stopped moving. Every generation since has tried, including planned attempts with pacers and new kit by the best 1500m runners of their time.