Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market30 Oct 2026

Will North and South Korea hold a diplomatic meeting by 31 Dec?

BinaryResolves 31 Dec 2026
History0%
Hunch1%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. On 29 and 30 October Switzerland's foreign minister discussed security on the Korean Peninsula in Pyongyang, then went on to Seoul.

How this resolves

The meeting market resolves YES if, by 23:59 US Eastern time on 31 December 2026, officials of North and South Korea who are allowed by their governments to hold diplomatic talks meet on purpose, face to face or through a go-between both sides accept with both teams in the same building, venue or city on the same day. Phone or video contact, chance meetings, greetings or photos, and UN or summit sessions without a separate meeting do not count, and it settles on official information from the governments of North and South Korea and a consensus of credible reporting, checked in Al Jazeera and The Guardian.

The pattern behind it

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Six times a country that had refused talks for years got an offer and did not meet within a week. None of those six met within 69 days. The only meeting, in January 2018, came on day seven.

We looked for cases where a government offered talks to a hostile country that had refused almost all contact with it for years. We found seven such offers since 2017, six of them to North Korea and one from Pakistan to India. Only once did the other side sit down to talks, within a week.