History. In four of six final rounds since 1999 where a first-term mayor faced a sitting city council member, the mayor lost (Los Angeles 2005, Cleveland 2005, Omaha 2013, San Antonio 2017).
Hunch. On 5 October The Guardian reported that Karen Bass's approval ratings were on par with Donald Trump's.
The mayor market resolves on the certified result from Los Angeles County, on the day the county certifies it and no later than 3 December 2026: YES if Nithya Raman has more votes than Karen Bass, NO if Bass has more, and void if the votes are equal. Election night counts and media projections do not settle it, and The Guardian and BBC News reports of the certified result are the backups.
We looked for cases where a US city mayor in a first term faced a sitting member of the same city council in a final round between the top two. We found six such races from 1999 to 2019, in five cities. Two were in San Antonio, and the man who won there in 2017 was the mayor who kept the job in 2019.