Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market10 Sep 2026

Does Washington or Westminster act to restrain frontier AI by 9 October?

BinaryResolves 9 Oct 2026
History12%
Hunch30%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

The official Congress record published by the US Government Publishing Office shows Senator Bernie Sanders introduced S. 5493, the Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act of 2026, on 23 September 2026.

Resolved 23 Sep 2026
How this resolves

The restraint market resolves YES if, between 10 September and 9 October 2026, a bill is introduced in the US Congress or presented in the UK Parliament, an executive order is signed, a binding order is issued, or a formal consultation is launched whose stated purpose is to limit the development or release of the most powerful AI systems, as recorded on congress.gov, bills.parliament.uk, whitehouse.gov or gov.uk. Alex Sobel's Artificial Superintelligence Bill, presented on 8 September, does not count, and nor do statements of intent, letters or hearings; where the registers are ambiguous the Guardian and BBC reports of the step settle it.

The pattern behind it

1 of 8
One of the last eight public warnings by frontier-lab insiders was followed within 30 days by a formal US or UK step that restrained the most powerful models: the order of 13 June 2026 that made Anthropic disable Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals, and that followed a demonstrated jailbreak rather than the warning itself. The other seven produced a summit called in June 2023, a competition review opened in May 2023, a consultation in March 2023 that promised no new legislation, voluntary commitments in May 2024 that had been scheduled a year earlier, and nothing measurable in the three most recent cases.

We found eight public warnings since March 2023. In each, staff or leaders at a leading AI lab said their own technology could cause a disaster or end humanity. We then checked whether, within 30 days, the UK government or Parliament, or the US federal government, took a formal step to hold back the building or release of the most powerful models.