Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market10 Sep 2026

Does the UK confirm AISI access to Anthropic's Mythos 5.1 by 9 October?

BinaryResolves 9 Oct 2026
Hunch30%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

By the end of 9 October 2026 neither the AI Security Institute blog nor gov.uk published any statement that AISI had access to Anthropic's Mythos 5.1; the latest AISI post on Mythos is its April 2026 evaluation of Mythos Preview.

Resolved 9 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The testing market resolves YES if the AI Security Institute or a UK minister confirms in a published statement by 9 October that AISI has been given access to Anthropic's Mythos 5.1, on aisi.gov.uk or gov.uk. An Anthropic announcement of an intention to submit the model does not settle it; if nothing official is published, the Financial Times and the Times reports of the position on that date decide.

The pattern behind it

1 of 8
One of the last eight public warnings by frontier-lab insiders was followed within 30 days by a formal US or UK step that restrained the most powerful models: the order of 13 June 2026 that made Anthropic disable Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals, and that followed a demonstrated jailbreak rather than the warning itself. The other seven produced a summit called in June 2023, a competition review opened in May 2023, a consultation in March 2023 that promised no new legislation, voluntary commitments in May 2024 that had been scheduled a year earlier, and nothing measurable in the three most recent cases.

We found eight public warnings since March 2023. In each, staff or leaders at a leading AI lab said their own technology could cause a disaster or end humanity. We then checked whether, within 30 days, the UK government or Parliament, or the US federal government, took a formal step to hold back the building or release of the most powerful models.