Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market10 Sep 2026

Does another OpenAI or Anthropic safety researcher resign publicly by 9 Oct?

BinaryResolves 9 Oct 2026
Hunch45%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

David Robinson, a safety leader at OpenAI, announced his resignation in his own essay on 3 October 2026, saying AI companies are not careful enough, as reported by The Guardian on 3 October and BBC News on 5 October 2026.

Resolved 3 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The resignation market resolves YES if a named safety, alignment or policy researcher at OpenAI, Anthropic or Google DeepMind publicly announces a resignation citing AI risk between 10 September and 9 October, reported by two of the Guardian, BBC, Financial Times or the Times. A departure reported without the person's own public statement does not count.

The pattern behind it

1 of 8
One of the last eight public warnings by frontier-lab insiders was followed within 30 days by a formal US or UK step that restrained the most powerful models: the order of 13 June 2026 that made Anthropic disable Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals, and that followed a demonstrated jailbreak rather than the warning itself. The other seven produced a summit called in June 2023, a competition review opened in May 2023, a consultation in March 2023 that promised no new legislation, voluntary commitments in May 2024 that had been scheduled a year earlier, and nothing measurable in the three most recent cases.

We found eight public warnings since March 2023. In each, staff or leaders at a leading AI lab said their own technology could cause a disaster or end humanity. We then checked whether, within 30 days, the UK government or Parliament, or the US federal government, took a formal step to hold back the building or release of the most powerful models.