Hunch. Le Pen has promised to amend the budget rather than block it, and MPs from several parties see parts of the bill as written for her party (Politico Europe, 1 Oct 2026).
The budget market resolves on the National Assembly's file for the 2027 finance bill and its publication in the Journal officiel: YES if parliament gives the bill final approval on or before 31 December 2026, including when the government uses Article 49.3 and the no-confidence motion fails. A budget brought in by ordinance, or a stopgap law, resolves NO, and Politico Europe and BBC News reports settle it if the official pages are unclear.
We looked for cases where a government without a majority had to pass its yearly budget, and its survival rested on one opposition party that was leading the polls before a national election. We found four since 2010. Three are from France since 2024, all in this same parliament and all with Le Pen's party holding the key votes. The fourth is Portugal in 2010.