History. In two of the four cases the government fell during the budget round: Barnier in December 2024 and Bayrou in September 2025. Bayrou in February 2025 and Sócrates in 2010 survived it.
Hunch. The presidential vote is already set for 18 April 2027, so bringing Lecornu down would not bring an early election, which is what Le Pen demanded when Bayrou fell (BBC News, 7 Jul 2026; The Guardian, 8 Sep 2025).
The no-confidence market resolves on the National Assembly's record of votes: YES if a no-confidence motion passes, or the government loses a confidence vote, between 5 October and 31 December 2026. A resignation without a lost vote resolves NO, and Politico Europe and BBC News reports of the count settle it if the official page is slow.
We looked for cases where a government without a majority had to pass its yearly budget, and its survival rested on one opposition party that was leading the polls before a national election. We found four since 2010. Three are from France since 2024, all in this same parliament and all with Le Pen's party holding the key votes. The fourth is Portugal in 2010.