Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market12 Oct 2026

Will Ledger promise to pay back CryptoBilis buyers by 9 November?

BinaryResolves 9 Nov 2026
History1 of 5
Hunch9%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 9 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. One of five makers offered buyers money: Compass Pools, a goodwill payment of about half the deposit, only for buyers who went ahead with a new dealer, offered within 44 days of the cut; whether within 31 days is not shown. Aston Martin, Novo Nordisk, NeoLife and Opatra London promised none in the pages read; Aston Martin and Opatra London pages cover fewer than 31 days.

Hunch. Ledger's 9 October page told CryptoBilis buyers to move their funds to a new device and said nothing about paying them back.

How this resolves

The payment market resolves on Ledger's Ongoing Issues page, blog and press page: YES if by 11:59pm Paris time on 9 November Ledger promises money or crypto to CryptoBilis buyers who lost funds, and NO if it does not. A free replacement device on its own is NO.

The pattern behind it

3 of 5
Three of five makers that stopped sales through a seller after buyers were harmed cut it off on the same day. The other two paused the seller and had not decided after 13 and 94 days.

We looked for cases where a maker itself stopped selling its product through one of its sellers, because buyers who used that seller were harmed. We found five such makers from 2021 to 2026, in four countries and five different businesses. None of them made crypto devices.