Hunch. On 30 October Carla Lockhart said she will set out her path early next week, a day after the DUP refused her demand to remove Michelle O'Neill.
The leaving market resolves YES if by 6 November 2026 Carla Lockhart publicly says she is leaving the DUP or giving up its whip, even while staying a member, or the DUP announces she has left, as reported by BBC News Northern Ireland. It resolves NO if she stays a DUP member and keeps the whip, even if she says she will act on her own, if the party expels or suspends her, or if no statement comes; The Guardian and the UK Parliament members record are the backup.
We looked for cases where an elected member publicly told their own party they would leave unless it met a demand, and would keep their seat if they left. We found four, in Britain and Australia, from 2018 and 2019. Three come from the same Conservative fight over leaving the EU without a deal. None of the four left within eight days.