Hunch. DUP leader Gavin Robinson said the party's assembly members backed his line unanimously, and no other DUP member has said they would leave.
The colleague market counts only if Lockhart announces by 6 November 2026 that she is leaving the DUP or giving up its whip, and is void otherwise. It resolves YES if by that date at least one other sitting DUP MP or member of the Northern Ireland Assembly publicly leaves the party or gives up its whip, as reported by BBC News Northern Ireland, and NO if Lockhart goes alone.
We looked for cases where an elected member publicly told their own party they would leave unless it met a demand, and would keep their seat if they left. We found four, in Britain and Australia, from 2018 and 2019. Three come from the same Conservative fight over leaving the EU without a deal. None of the four left within eight days.