Hunch. Gavin Robinson said the DUP will not take steps that punish the people of Northern Ireland, and pulling Emma Little-Pengelly out would stop the Executive.
The Little-Pengelly market resolves YES if by 6 November 2026 the DUP announces that Emma Little-Pengelly is leaving the post of deputy First Minister, or she resigns from it, as reported by BBC News Northern Ireland. It resolves NO if she is still in post on 6 November, with The Guardian and the Executive Office website as the backup.
We looked for cases where an elected member publicly told their own party they would leave unless it met a demand, and would keep their seat if they left. We found four, in Britain and Australia, from 2018 and 2019. Three come from the same Conservative fight over leaving the EU without a deal. None of the four left within eight days.