History. 4 of 4: in the Rusal, Nynas, Citgo and NIS sales, every sale licence was replaced or the sale approved before the licence ran out.
Hunch. The sale of Lukoil's foreign businesses is now part of US talks with Russia about a ceasefire, which none of the four past sales faced.
The sale licence market resolves on the US Treasury's sanctions office page of recent actions: YES if by the end of 21 November 2026, Washington time, it issues a licence that replaces or extends licence 131K beyond 21 November, approves a sale of Lukoil International, or lifts sanctions on it, and NO if licence 131K runs out with none of these. Reuters and BBC News reports settle it if the Treasury pages are silent, including a sale approval announced by Lukoil or the buyer.
We looked for cases where the US Treasury’s sanctions office gave a licence with an end date for the sale or handover of a company under its sanctions, based outside its owner’s country. We found four such sales from 2018 to 2025. Two belonged to Venezuela’s state oil company, at the same time. Each time we checked what happened as a licence ran out.