Hunch. On 31 October the BBC reported that, as first proposed, most workers will likely still need 10 years in the UK before they can settle.
The 10-year market resolves YES if the final settlement rules, published by 12 November 2026, keep a standard wait of 10 years or more for people on work routes before reductions for income or community work; exceptions for single groups such as care workers still count as YES. It is void if no final rules appear by 12 November, and the statement to Parliament or the rules on GOV.UK settle it, with BBC News and The Guardian as backup.
We looked for cases where a UK government put a tougher rule out for public consultation, the rule also reached people already in the system, and the government then set out its final version. We found six since 2010, three on visas and three on disability and sickness benefits. In four of them the final version kept the main rule from the consultation.