Hunch. On 31 October the BBC reported that care workers already in the UK are likely to be spared, and it named no other group.
The groups market resolves YES if the final rules, published by 12 November 2026, give a shorter wait, an exception or transitional protection to two or more named groups, or to everyone affected, compared with the November 2025 consultation. Easing for one group only, such as care workers already in the UK, is NO, easing already in the consultation does not count, and it is void if no final rules appear by 12 November.
We looked for cases where a UK government put a tougher rule out for public consultation, the rule also reached people already in the system, and the government then set out its final version. We found six since 2010, three on visas and three on disability and sickness benefits. In four of them the final version kept the main rule from the consultation.